Dr Rajiv Desai

THE POPULATION EXPLOSION (OVERPOPULATION)

January 23, 2010 by Dr Rajiv Desai

THE POPULATION EXPLOSION (OVERPOPULATION):
The population explosion or overpopulation for human species is defined as the number of people in the given area exceeds the resources and the carrying capacity of it’s environment to sustain the quality of life which would have existed ; had the lesser number of people inhabited the same area in the same environment.

Overpopulation is when the number of people cannot be maintained without depleting resources and degrading environment with lowering standard of living.The quality is sacrificed at the cost of the quantity.As per the above definition,the earth is overpopulated and almost all countries are overpopulated.
Many environmental,social and economic problems stem from overpopulation.The earth is a ‘closed system’ means we have limited environmental/ecological resources like water,air,land,food,shelter,energy etc to be consumed by the population and to be replenished by the earth.
If the rate of consumption of resources by the population is less than the rate of replenishment by the earth, no problem.The reverse is overpopulation.

The population explosion is different from population density.Population density means the number of people per unit land area.There is no correlation between population explosion and population density.Even sparsely populated area with little population density could be overpopulated,eg sahara desert,antarctica etc.Hongkong has population density of 14218 people per square mile with less overpopulation due to high standard of living while Africa has population density of 55 people per square mile but still overpopulated due to lack of resources.
The earth had population of 10 million people 10000 years ago.
Today, the earth’s population is 6.8 billion people.This is the exponential growth of human population.There is ten-fold rise in population in last 300 years due to industrial revolution and green-agriculture revolution.During last 40 years,human population had doubled and will rise by 50 percent in next 40 years.

THE WORLD POPULATION REACHED….
1 BILLION in 1804
2 BILLION in 1927
3 BILLION in 1960
4 BILLION in 1974
5 BILLION in 1987
6 BILLION in 1997
The population will reach 9 billion in year 2050 unless we intervene.To achieve sustainable economy and to avoid disaster like war/epidemics/mass starvation; the population must fall to two-third of it’s present value.

Today,China has 1.3 billion people with India 1.1 billion people but by the year 2030; India will overtake china and in the year 2050, India’s population will be 1.7 billion and China’s population will be 1.4 billion.
The world population is growing by 74 millions every year,200000 every day and 140 births every minute.

Overpopulation in a given country is due to increased birth rate,decreased death rates,increased fertility rates,increased immigration,depletion of resources,long life-spans etc..
The crude birth rate for the world is 20.3 births per 1000 people per year.The crude death rate is 8.6 deaths per 1000 people per year.The difference between them is population growth.Zero population growth means the same birth and death rates.There are 3 births for every death in the world with 1.6 births per death in developed nations and 3.3 births per death in developing nations.So there is a difference between developed nations and developing nations.The fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman in developed nations but it is 3 children per woman in developing nations.However,the standard of living and the quality of life is higher in developed nations with higher use of resources per capita resulting in overpopulation despite lesser birth/fertility rates.

Overpopulation is directly proportional to poverty.In countries where fertility rates are 2 children per woman,the GDP per capita is more than 15000 dollars where as in countries where fertility rates are 4 children per woman,the GDP per capita is less than 5000 dollars barring few exceptions like saudi arabia/israel.

HARMS DONE BY OVERPOPULATION:
One billion people live in slums which are breeding grounds for disease,crime,narcotics,unemployment,alcoholism etc etc..
If population growth slows down,the countries can invest in education,health,job creation etc to increase standard of living with more savings,more investments and better economy.
Everyday 40000 children die due to malnutrition/starvation with one starvation death every 2.43 seconds.
Human overpopulation leads to mass species extinction of many animal/plants species with extinction of one species every 2.5 minutes.

WHAT CAN BE DONE TO REDUCE OVERPOPULATION:
The China has adopted one child policy since 1979 which resulted in population control and great economic growth.There is also a policy of reward/incentive to the couple who has one child with punishment/fine to the couple with 4 children.  A country where people aged 60 or older account for more than 10 percent of the total population, or those aged 65 or older account for more than 7 percent of the total population, is defined as an ageing society. The Chinese population is rapidly aging, due to a lower mortality rate and the one child policy. This will lead to a pension problem for the Chinese government and may reduce China’s ability to compete in the future. By 2005, citizens over 65 years of age rose to 6.96 percent of the whole population. According to the New England Journal of Medicine, the rapid decrease in China’s birth rate, combined with stable or improving life expectancy, has led to an increasing proportion of elderly people and an increase in the ratio between elderly parents and adult children.   

In a democratic country,it is difficult to implement one child policy forcibly.I also disapprove forcible sterilisation/abortion to control population.  Voluntary one child policy till overpopulation is controlled is the best way out.
First, religions must stop interfering in family planning and birth control.The Roman Catholic Church and the Islamic clergy are advised, not to preach innocent people against family planning.
Second, the people must understand that sex is a biological desire for the survival of the species and not for the destruction of the species.out of 400000 conceptions every day,50 percent are planned and deliberate while remaining 50 percent are unintended and regretted later on. 41 percent of all pregnancies are unintended as per another study.These unintended conceptions/pregnancies exist because the woman cannot find/afford contraceptives.Another study showed that 120 million couples donot use contraceptives despite wanting to avoid child bearing.In the year 1998,in the Indian state of Uttarpradesh,a study found that 43 percent of women were beaten by their husbands regularly and such women must be provided with contraceptives to prevent unintended conceptions.
THE CONTRACEPTIVE PILLS ARE SAFER THAN ASPIRIN AND MUST BE FREELY AVAILABLE WITHOUT PRESCRIPTION WITH NO COST TO THE WOMAN.
The birth rate in the state of kerala in India is much lower than the state of bihar.The education level in kerala is higher than bihar.A study in america has shown that educational attainment is inversely proportional to birth/fertility rates.So education is a must for a woman to bring down population.
Population growth rate is the average annual percent change in the population, resulting from a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths and the balance of migrants entering and leaving a country. Current India population growth rate is 1.38 % which should become zero or even negative to control population and voluntary one child policy is a step in this direction.

Population-sceptics believe that overpopulation is not a problem and the old economic dictum of HUMAN CAPITAL(labour+intelligence) is the driving force of healthy economy and wealth creation and therefore the more people,the better off we are; and also the food production has increased to sustain more people etc..I disagree with them.

THE MORAL OF THE STORY:
1) Population explosion is the greatest threat to our future because it causes poverty,unemployment,disease,crime,drug addiction,global warming,energy crisis,pollution,water- shortage,starvation,deforestation,corruption,anarchy,war,mass species extinction,fossil-fuel depletion,etc etc etc…
2) Voluntary one child policy by the couple is the best solution… 1+1=1  till overpopulation is controlled and population growth rate becomes zero percent.
3) Education of women is the most important measure by the state to control population.
Dr.Rajiv desai.MD.
POSTSCRIPT:
In the recently concluded national parliamentary elections in India, no political party gave any importance to overpopulation in India.